The key to determining the winner of Super Bowl LI is much more obvious than one would think. The truth lies in the statistics, Super Bowl history, and common sense. If one were to consider these three factors, it would soon become apparent that the New England Patriots will win Super Bowl LI.

The Patriots have made more Super Bowl appearances (9) than any other team in NFL history, seven of which have come in the past sixteen years. Furthermore, the Patriots have had the same coach and quarterback for the past sixteen years. Head Coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady have been to Super Bowl together six times (not including this year), and they have won four out of the six times. The Patriots have shown that they can win when it really matters, so why would they stop now?

Both the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots had top 5 scoring offenses during the regular season. However, on the defensive side of the ball the Patriots ranked 8th and the Falcons came stumbling into 25th in the NFL. If history tells us anything, it is clear that the better defense usually wins the game. Last year in the Super Bowl, the number one offense in the NFL squared off against the top defense. The better defensive team, the Denver Broncos, ended up prevailing 24-10. If past trends continue, the far superior Patriots defense will be able to prevent the Falcons from winning their first ever Super Bowl.

The Falcons’ biggest enemy in this matchup might be their own misfortune. Atlanta’s best player is arguably wide receiver Julio Jones. He finished second in the NFL in receiving with 1,409 yards. On top of that, Jones added six touchdown catches to his already impressive stat line. However, the past few weeks Jones has been battling a toe injury and he has been limited in practice for the past week. Jones will still play in the game, but it will be interesting to see how much his injury will slow down one of the NFL’s top players. Furthermore, center Alex Mack did not practice last week due to a leg injury. He is the captain of the Falcons’ offensive line, so the participation in practice and games is vital to the offense. Both of these players are expected to play on gameday, but these injuries could possibly impact their quality of play.

On offense, the Patriots have a favorable match-up as the Falcons have a below average defense, at best. Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady had an elite season; he threw for 28 touchdowns while only throwing 2 interceptions in 12 games. As long as the Patriots’ offensive line can protect Brady, he will surely pick apart the Falcons’ weak defense. The largest threat that the Patriots face is Vic Beasley. Beasley is the Falcons’ best defensive player; he led the NFL in sacks with 15.5. The Falcons may be looking to attack the Patriots’ with Beasley, especially since he will be matched up against offensive lineman Marcus Cannon who has limited starting experience in the NFL. However, Cannon had a breakout year. In fact, Cannon was voted a second-team All-Pro for the 2016-17 season. If Cannon can shut down, or at least contain, Beasley, the Patriots offense will run over the Falcons’ defense with little resistance.

In the first quarter both offenses will get off to hot starts. In fact, these two teams ranked first and second in first quarter points this year. As the game progresses into the second quarter, the Patriots will begin to step up a bit and slow down the Falcons’ offense. The score at halftime will favor the Patriots 21-13. In the third quarter, the Patriots will continue to add to their lead through sturdy defense. Heading into the final quarter, the Patriots will be leading 31-20. The Falcons will make a comeback in the fourth quarter, tying the game late in the fourth quarter. However, through the veteran leadership of Tom Brady, the Patriots will make a late drive down the field and win off of a field goal from veteran kicker Stephen Gostkowski. The final score will be 34-31, and the Patriots will win their 5th Super Bowl in franchise history.